El Nino Expected to Be Worse Starting This November

KUALA LUMPUR: This year’s El Nino phenomenon is expected to become more extreme starting this November, worse than the episodes of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016.

Temperatures could reach up to 40 degrees Celsius, especially from March to April next year.

This situation has the potential to increase the risk of drought, forest fires, and haze in Malaysia, particularly in Sabah and northern Sarawak early next year.

Climatologist Emeritus Professor Dr Fredolin Tangang said that based on the latest projections from several international climate prediction centres, this El Nino has the potential to be among the strongest ever recorded.

He said there is a possibility that the phenomenon could match or exceed the El Nino episodes of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, which had major impacts on weather and climate worldwide.

“This development needs to be taken seriously because El Nino is expected to continue strengthening over the next few months before peaking around the end of this year to early 2027,” he told BH.

On June 11, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that the 2026/27 El Nino phenomenon had begun after the Nino 3.4 Index rose to +0.7 degrees Celsius, surpassing the El Nino threshold.

In addition, the APEC Climate Centre (APCC) projects a probability of over 90 per cent that the phenomenon will reach at least the strong El Nino category.

The latest forecast from the United States Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) estimates a more than 90 per cent probability that the 2026/27 El Nino will develop into the very strong category.

Drier conditions

Fredolin said the situation becomes more concerning if the El Nino coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon.

He said the combination of both phenomena typically causes drier conditions in Southeast Asia, thereby increasing the risk of forest and peatland fires, especially in Sumatra and Kalimantan.

“Although El Nino is commonly associated with dry conditions, drought and heat, it can also lead to increased rainfall in certain areas and months.

“In the Klang Valley, the increase in rainfall and the occurrence of thunderstorms and flash floods during this period are due to the influence of the strengthening El Nino.

“The same effect is also occurring in central Sumatra, and these conditions are far more humid compared to a normal Southwest Monsoon season without the El Nino phenomenon,” he said.

He said that when the rise in sea surface temperatures caused by the El Nino phenomenon occurs in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during its early phase (June to September), it generates two anticyclonic atmospheric circulations north and south of the eastern Indian Ocean.

“Both of these atmospheric circulations will generate moisture convergence around the equatorial region, particularly in central Sumatra and the western part of the Peninsula, especially the Klang Valley.

“This moisture convergence strengthens the diurnal cycle and the generation of thunderstorms and high rainfall, equalling or possibly exceeding the monsoon transition period during April to May,” he said.

Fredolin said the same circulation causes moisture divergence in the southern part of Sumatra, making the area extremely dry, receiving only around 0 to 30 per cent of normal rainfall this month.

He said similar dryness is also occurring in parts of Kalimantan, due to the weakening Walker circulation and moisture divergence.

“We are fortunate that so far there have been no reports of forest fires in southern Sumatra and Kalimantan, as occurred during the El Nino of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016.

“However, the dry conditions in southern Sumatra and Kalimantan will persist until October, and the risk of forest fires in these areas will increase over the coming months.

“If major fires occur in these regions, the smoke can be carried by the wind to the Peninsula, Sarawak, Brunei Darussalam and Singapore, potentially triggering a transboundary haze episode,” he said.

Berita Harian