Vietnam Defies Trump Tariffs as US-Bound Exports Hit Record Highs
Ho Chi Minh City: Vietnam has emerged as one of the surprise winners of the latest round of US trade tariffs, with exports to the United States surging to record levels despite fears that President Donald Trump’s protectionist measures would cripple the country’s export-driven economy.
Inside factories on the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, the hum of machinery has not slowed. At a furniture plant supplying luxury hotels and homes across the Middle East, Europe, and the United States, production remains brisk. For Jonathan Charles, a Vietnam-based high-end furniture maker, US orders, which make up more than half of its business, stayed steady throughout 2025.
“When the 20 percent tariffs were announced, my first reaction was panic for about an hour,” said chief executive Jonathan Sowter. “But then I realized it’s a level playing field. All of our competitors are in Asia. Even with tariffs, the US still can’t produce what we make at a lower cost.”
Official data released this week shows Vietnam’s exports to the United States jumped by 28 percent last year, while its trade surplus with Washington ballooned to a staggering US$134 billion. The country’s economy expanded by eight percent, exceeding analyst expectations and likely outperforming most of Asia, according to HSBC.
“Vietnam was widely seen as highly exposed to tariff risks, but instead its trade ballooned to record highs,” said HSBC ASEAN economist Yun Liu. “Despite facing a 20 percent headline tariff, Vietnam actually captured greater US market share in products such as footwear, textiles, and consumer electronics.”
The tariff impact has not been uniform. Lower-margin manufacturers, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, have felt the strain, with some companies cutting jobs or scaling back operations. Apparel supplier Thanh Cong Group, which works with brands including Adidas and Lacoste, confirmed its US shipments declined last year, though it declined to give figures.
In contrast, electronics producers dominated by multinationals such as Samsung and Apple recorded strong growth in shipments to the United States. Seafood and agricultural exporters also posted modest gains, easing earlier fears of a broad-based slowdown.
Coffee exporter Eatu Cafe said US demand rebounded quickly after initial uncertainty. “There was hesitation when the tariffs were announced, but orders soon recovered,” said director Tran Dinh Trong. “We are optimistic and seeing positive signs for exports to the US.”
Vietnam’s trade success has also drawn closer scrutiny from Washington. The country benefited significantly from Trump’s first trade war in 2018, as Chinese manufacturers shifted production to Vietnam to avoid US tariffs. When Trump returned to the White House in 2025, Vietnam’s swelling trade surplus put it back in the spotlight.
In April, Hanoi was jolted by the announcement of 46 percent “Liberation Day” tariffs on Vietnamese goods, later reduced to 20 percent for most products following negotiations. The US has warned that goods illegally transshipped from China through third countries could face levies of up to 40 percent, though definitions remain unclear and trade talks are ongoing.
Analysts caution that headline export figures may overstate Vietnam’s true value-added gains. “The data shows where shipments leave from, not where most of the value is created,” said Linh Nguyen of Control Risks, noting increased final-stage assembly in Vietnam and re-exports of goods made elsewhere. She also suggested some US buyers front-loaded orders in anticipation of future tariff hikes.
Even so, strong global demand, particularly for electronics driven by the artificial intelligence boom, is expected to support Vietnam’s export momentum. HSBC forecasts the trade-reliant economy will grow nearly seven percent in 2026, while the Vietnamese government has set an ambitious target of at least 10 percent growth.