Before Donald Trump’s second term, Chinese exports will reach a record high this year

Economists anticipate that Chinese exports will surpass historical highs this year as consumers race to place orders in advance of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, who has threatened to impose higher tariffs.

The median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Nov. 15-21 indicates that export growth will accelerated to 7 percent in the final three months compared to the same period last year. That represents an increase from the 5% increase observed in October, prior to the US election, and would elevate the total exports this year to $3.548 trillion, surpassing the previous record set in 2022.

“In the coming months, foreign companies may panic-stockpile, which could benefit Chinese exports,” stated Erica Tay, an economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group. “Next year, China’s policymakers will likely rely more heavily on pro-consumption stimulus measures due to the threat of a trade war.”

The quickest growth in exports since July 2022 has already commenced this quarter, indicating that China is on the brink of a record trade surplus that could top $1 trillion this year. In recent weeks, Beijing has continued to rely on sales abroad to counteract the weakness of domestic demand, despite the fact that officials have redirected their policies by injecting stimulus into the economy.

During the campaign, Trump expressed his intention to raise the tariffs on Chinese products to as high as 60%, a level that Bloomberg Economics predicts would significantly diminish trade between the world’s two largest economies. Trump levied tariffs of up to 25 percent on more than $300 billion of Chinese cargoes during his first term, which elicited retaliation from Beijing. President Joe Biden has essentially maintained these tariffs.