PKR After GE16: Between Power, Perception and Political Reality

MANY are confused about the position of the People’s Justice Party (PKR) at this moment. They feel that PKR is a strong and solid party. But the reality is, PKR is not a strong and influential party. This confusion arises because Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, PKR’s President, became the 10th Prime Minister of Malaysia (PMX).

In truth, PKR is a party that underpins the Federal Government and state governments, but has no ‘State Base’ or stronghold state for PKR. This is what most people do not realise.

Anwar became prime minister only by chance, when UMNO President Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi brought 30 Barisan Nasional (BN) Members of Parliament to join Pakatan Harapan (PH). PH at that time had only won 82 parliamentary seats, including Syed Sadiq from Muda.

The support of the UMNO President was enough to reach 112 for a simple majority. After UMNO’s participation, this coalition government then received support from the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) with 23 seats, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) with 8, WARISAN 3, KDM 2, PBM 1 and 1 Independent.

When Anwar became prime minister, PKR had only 31 MPs out of 222 parliamentary seats. Anwar’s position as prime minister is not like the position of prime ministers in the UMNO era when it led the country. Unlike Anwar, where PKR is far smaller than its component partner DAP, which has 40 MPs.

Whereas UMNO, when its president was prime minister, had a strong position with a far greater number of MPs than its component partners, from the Alliance era right through to the BN era. With that strength, UMNO could be the ‘big brother’ when leading this country, whether during the Alliance or BN eras.

UMNO was clearly the ‘big brother’ during the Alliance and BN administrations. Conversely, many see that under Anwar’s coalition government, the ‘big brother’ is DAP. A simple example is the PTMP project, namely the Penang Transport Master Plan.

For the Mutiara LRT alone, just one component of the PTMP, the cost is RM16.8 billion. It is understood that this amount has been approved by the Federal Government, in order to appease the ‘big brother’ that rules Penang. The total estimated cost of the PTMP is around RM46 billion.

If Penang receives a large allocation from the Federal Government, this clearly illustrates that DAP is the ‘big brother’ to PKR. The reason being, DAP controls the state of Penang.

Indeed, PKR leads the states of Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, where the chief ministers of both states come from PKR. Their position is the same as Anwar’s position in the coalition government at the centre, known as the Unity Government.

What exactly is united, other than hearing the quarrels between UMNO and DAP leadership, especially from the voices of UMNO Youth chiefs and DAP leadership.

Anwar became prime minister with a capital of only 31 MPs out of 222 MPs in Parliament. For that reason, during the early formation of his coalition government, he often sought shelter in the shadow of the Istana Negara. His capital was the coalition government formed on the decree of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong (YDPA).

That capital was also peddled by his sycophants and supporters. With that, he hoped that the opposition would feel intimidated and fearful of the whip of the Istana Negara. Thus Anwar has remained safe as PMX to this day.

Datuk Seri Amirudin Shaari became the Menteri Besar of Selangor not because of PKR Selangor’s success in winning many seats during the 2023 State Election (PRN). Indeed, PH rules Selangor because it won 32 Selangor state assembly seats out of a total of 56.

Of that number, the largest was DAP, which won 15 Selangor state seats. PKR only won 12 Selangor state seats, while Amanah contributed 5 Selangor state seats.

So it is clear that Amirudin ‘sits’ in the MB seat courtesy of DAP. Not because of PKR’s strength. Perhaps it is because of that strength that many DAP state assemblymen have become arrogant and haughty in the Selangor State Legislative Assembly sittings. This is evident from the conduct of their representatives such as Seri Kembangan assemblyman Wong Siew Ki and the Speaker, Lau Weng San.

The arrogance of DAP in the Selangor State Legislative Assembly was clear from the conduct of Wong Siew Ki, who openly disrespected the Sultan of Selangor when His Majesty officiated the State Legislative Assembly. When debating the royal decree, he arrogantly said he was deeply saddened that His Majesty did not want pig farms in Selangor.

Taman Medan assemblyman Dr Afif Bahardin strongly objected to that remark. Then Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali also supported the objection from the Taman Medan assemblyman. The house became chaotic because PH had more members. The Speaker Lau Weng San then ejected Dr Afif from the house and suspended him for 3 days. An impolite assemblyman was defended. An assemblyman who wanted to defend the dignity of the house and the Sultan of Selangor was ejected from the house.

Similarly with the position of the Negeri Sembilan MB, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun. His position relies on DAP’s strength, which enabled PH to form the Negeri Sembilan state government, besides receiving support from UMNO. PH Negeri Sembilan has only 17 state seats.

DAP won 11 seats, while PKR only won 5 seats and Amanah has 1 seat, while UMNO won 14 seats and PN controls 5 state seats. That is why, when UMNO withdrew its support, the PH Negeri Sembilan government not only wavered but collapsed.

Ultimately, the Negeri Sembilan State Assembly was dissolved on 5 June and nomination was on 18 July 2026. Polling day is on 1 August 2026.

From the picture above, it is clear that PKR has no ‘State Base’ or stronghold state. Although PKR representatives become MBs in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, both states are not their strongholds. The lifespan of PKR MBs in both states depends on DAP.

Similarly, Anwar’s position in the Federal Government depends entirely on DAP’s goodwill. Furthermore, the lifespan of Anwar’s prime ministership is also determined by UMNO/BN (30) and GPS (23).

Malaysia’s political history shows that any party that does not have a ‘State Base’ or stronghold state, even if it holds power initially, will eventually shrink and become a mosquito party. The writer has discussed this matter many times.

Nevertheless, the writer wishes to remind PKR supporters that your party is heading towards a very difficult path, if not towards its death throes. Why? Impossible? Don’t believe it?

Be honest and look at the fate of any party that loses its ‘State Base’ or stronghold state, even if it initially ruled a state. The best examples are MCA and Gerakan. Since independence, Penang was controlled by MCA. When MCA lost to Gerakan in 1969 and lost the chief minister’s post, MCA’s influence over Chinese voters continued to wane.

Similarly, what befell Gerakan. Despite taking over the leadership of Penang from MCA in 1969, it lost in GE2008 to DAP. Gerakan not only lost the chief minister’s seat, but the party has continued to wander to this day.

Now MCA and Gerakan rely on their partners in the coalition or alliance they have joined to give them the opportunity to contest in seats where the majority of voters are Malay. That is how pathetic MCA and Gerakan are now after losing their ‘State Base’ or stronghold state.

The fate that befell MCA and Gerakan will befall PKR. The party whose president is currently prime minister will face a difficult, thorny path after GE16. Many believe that the results of GE16 will not favour PH.

PH’s failure, especially Anwar’s failure to fulfil his promises before and during GE15, will not be forgiven by voters. Not only are Malay voters rejecting PH, but non-Malay voters are also proving that they are fed up with PH. The majority of Malay or Bumiputera voters are not only fed up but disgusted with PMX and PH.

The rejection by Sabah voters in the recent state election of PH candidates is clear proof that whatever PH peddles is not trusted and is thrown away. The result was that PKR won one seat and DAP was wiped out, winning no seats, including their generals. The PKR candidate who won in Melalap, Datuk Jamawi Jaafar, is not an original PKR member but from UMNO. Can PKR survive or will it be buried in Sabah in the future?

The results of the Johor state election have made clear PH’s position among Johor voters. The picture of rejection by Johor voters, to some extent, represents voters in Peninsular Malaysia. Not only Malays rejected them, but non-Malays also joined the Malays in crushing the confidence of PH leaders and supporters in Johor. If the impact of PH’s results in Sabah was very humiliating for PH including Anwar, similarly with the results of the Johor state election.

Once again, PKR is left with one seat in the Johor State Assembly. DAP dropped from 10 to 6 seats. MCA increased its seats from 4 to 8. MIC increased from 3 to 4 state seats, while UMNO won 36 seats, an increase of 3 state seats. Making BN control 48 out of 56 in the Johor State Assembly.

Voters in Negeri Sembilan will vote on 1 August. Nevertheless, political analysts conclude that the PH Negeri Sembilan government will fall on 1 August. It is expected that BN-PN will win between 22 to 24 state seats. More interestingly, when Dr Ong Kian Ming, former Bangi MP, concluded that BN-PN could win between 23 to 24 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state election.

In fact, he also felt that Anthony Loke could fall in Chennah, and similarly Aminuddin’s fate in Linggi. He also gave the opinion that PKR might win one seat. If Kian Ming’s study and reading are accurate, then PKR Negeri Sembilan will suffer heartache with only one seat to present to Anwar, as PKR President.

The writer has conducted a study on PKR’s position in Pahang and PH. In Pahang, UMNO has 17, similarly PAS won 17 state seats. The remaining 8 seats are controlled by PH, where PKR has 2 seats namely Semambu and Teruntum. The study’s findings indicate that the PKR seat in Semambu will be easily seized by the BN-PN candidate in GE16. That is if BN-PN remain united until that election.

In the last GE15, the PKR candidate Chan Chun Kuang won with a majority of 1,804 in a four-cornered contest. He obtained 18,902 votes, while Zulfadli from PAS obtained 17,093, Khairul from UMNO got 10,422 and Dr Rashidah from Pejuang 820.

The voter composition was Malay 60.8 per cent, Chinese 29.5, Indian 8.3 and others 1.3. In conclusion, in GE16 PKR may only be able to hold on to Teruntum. Meaning in Pahang, PKR will only be able to leave a tombstone, not complete for a Muslim burial.

In Perak, PH won 24 seats, with DAP controlling 18, while PKR and Amanah each won 3 state seats. The state seats won by PKR are Hulu Kinta, Tualang Sekah and Teja.

If BN-PN remain united in facing PH in GE16, it is highly likely that PKR will only have one seat in the Perak State Assembly, namely Teja. The other two seats currently held by PKR will be seized by BN-PN, namely Hulu Kinta and Tualang Sekah.

In Hulu Kinta, PKR candidate Muhamad Arafat obtained 22,200 while Puteri Holijah from PN got 18,057. Mazlan from BN got 16,224 and Murugiah, independent, got 437. The PKR candidate won with a majority of 4,163. The voter composition is Malay 56 per cent, Chinese 28, Indian 15 and others 0.1. If the combined strength of UMNO and PN votes are combined, even if 6,000 go to the PKR candidate, the seat can still be seized from PKR.

The Tualang Sekah seat will also be seized by BN-PN. Look at the previous results, where the PKR candidate only won with a slim majority of 253 votes. Its candidate Mohd Azlan Helmi obtained 8,025 votes, while Pazli Abdullah Sani, the PN candidate, got 7,772. The BN candidate Abdul Rahman got 7,524. The voter composition is Malay 64 per cent, Chinese 24, Indian 11 and others 0.1.

Moving from Sabah, PKR won 1 seat. In Johor, 1 seat. In Negeri Sembilan, it is expected to have 1 seat. It is highly likely that in Pahang and Perak in GE16, PKR will only hold on to one seat each. Will PKR also fail to win any seats in the Melaka state election this time, as was the result of the Melaka state election in 2021?

In Penang, of the 5 state seats held by PKR, one may face a difficult path in GE16, namely Batu Maung. Although it had a majority of 3,221 in the last state election.

Selangor gives high hope for PKR to survive. Of the 12 seats it currently has, only 5 state seats will have to face the strength of BN-PN in GE16. Those seats are Tanjung Sepat, Lembah Jaya, Bukit Antarabangsa, Kuala Kubu Baharu and Sungai Tua.

If PKR’s position in the states discussed remains as such, then certainly the party will face a difficult path to becoming a strong and influential party.

Moreover, when this PH Madani Government falls in GE16. It is highly likely that PH will lose all its parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak. In Sabah PH has 3 MPs, namely one from PKR in Sepanggar and 2 DAP in Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan, while in Sarawak it has 6 MPs, namely 5 from DAP and one from PKR. PKR won in Miri, while DAP won in Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sibu, Lanang and Mas Gading.

Based on PKR’s own leaked study, it admits that only 7 seats are considered safe in Peninsular Malaysia. It is understood that four of those seats are supporters of Rafizi Ramli. That means PKR itself does not believe that seats other than those 7 can be defended in GE16.

In simple language, the Madani Government will fall in GE16. Can PKR survive in the 10 parliamentary constituencies it currently controls? Can PH win half of the 40 seats it won in GE15?

After the collapse of the Madani Government in GE16, can PKR survive? What if the PH Selangor government also collapses under the onslaught of BN-PN?

Certainly, PKR will head towards its destruction. Who among PKR’s leadership is capable of shouldering the responsibility of reviving the spirit of its supporters and backers who are beginning to become paralysed?

Is it Nurul Izzah, who now seems to be distancing herself? Is it Amirudin, Aminuddin, S. Ramanan or Chang Lih Kang, who are PKR Vice-Presidents? Or is Anwar still the hope?

What if, after losing in GE16, Anwar has to go up and down the courts through the Yusof Rawther case. Or other cases that are waiting. If Anwar returns to prison, is Nurul Izzah willing to come out of her hiding place to shoulder a burden that she may not be able to bear? Is she willing to act like a fool — carrying a burden that is not hers?

Will Amirudin be free to lead PKR, which will be almost paralysed after losing in GE16? Worse, if he is no longer MB when the PH Selangor state government also collapses. Amirudin’s name has been linked to doubts in the Selangor Maritime Gateway project.

Linked to Landasan Lumayan Sdn Bhd involving Vincent Tan, Berjaya Land Berhad owned by Vincent Tan. Questions have been raised about how the joint venture between the Selangor Government and Berjaya Land Berhad ended up with Landasan Lumayan Sdn Bhd only getting 45 per cent and Berjaya Land Berhad getting 55 per cent? Whereas the 600-acre land belongs to the Selangor Government involved in the joint venture.

Is Aminuddin ready to continue PKR’s struggle after it is rejected in GE16? Is he capable of working hard if he is no longer the MB of Negeri Sembilan?

Is R. Ramanan free to work hard to revive PKR after losing in GE16? In truth, R. Ramanan is not a leader who is favoured within PKR like Rafizi Ramli. Besides, he was referred to by Rafizi as ‘Mr R’ linked to RM9.5 million. He was accused of receiving that money to settle the ‘Corporate Mafia’ case.

He did not sue Rafizi, although before that he threatened that anyone who linked his name to Victor Chin would be sued. Will S. Ramanan be hauled to court after the Madani Government collapses? Time will tell.

Based on the position above, it is extremely difficult for PKR to return to being an influential party. It has been explained that PKR has no ‘State Base’ or stronghold state. On top of that, PKR state assemblymen have already suffered many losses in state elections. In GE16, the current PKR state assemblymen will fall like rotten jackfruit.

After the Madani Government collapses and many of its leaders have to go up and down the courts, certainly PKR’s fate will be like the proverb — Fallen and struck by a ladder. PKR will become a mosquito party, wandering in sorrow before being thrown into the dustbin of history.