PH Plus: PH Retains Multiracial Support, Bersatu Could Broaden Malay Voter Appeal – Analyst

KUALA LUMPUR: As seen during the 14th General Election (GE14), the possibility of Bersatu returning to cooperate with Pakatan Harapan (PH) has reopened discussion over the political formula that brought the coalition to Putrajaya in 2018.

Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Malaysian Institute of Political Analysis (UUM MAPAN) Director Dr Mashitah Mohd Udin said that during GE14, PH, which then comprised PKR, DAP, Amanah and Bersatu, succeeded in forming the Federal Government after winning a majority of parliamentary seats.

She said Bersatu itself won 13 parliamentary seats, while post-GE14 analyses showed that PH secured about 30 per cent of Malay support overall, in addition to strong support from non-Malay voters.

Therefore, she said, Bersatu’s value to PH should not necessarily be measured solely by the number of seats it could win on its own.

“It is true that Bersatu’s recent electoral performance has not been particularly encouraging, especially in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.

“However, such results do not necessarily mean that Bersatu has no strategic value at all within a coalition.”

According to Mashitah, in the context of cooperation with PH, Bersatu’s role may not be to replace the strengths of PKR, Amanah or DAP, but it could potentially complement the coalition’s profile in constituencies with a higher proportion of Malay voters.

She said the GE14 experience provided some basis for this argument. In the run-up to the election, Merdeka Center estimated that Malay support for PH increased from about 20 per cent to 27.8 per cent during the final few weeks of campaigning.

She added that post-election analyses also indicated that Bersatu and Amanah contributed to shifts in the Malay vote in several constituencies, although the level of support varied from state to state.

“Therefore, if a ‘PH Plus Bersatu’ formula does materialise, the political logic is that PH could retain its multiracial support base while attempting to broaden its appeal among Malay voters through Bersatu.

“However, this does not mean that the GE14 pattern can automatically be repeated. The political landscape in 2026 is very different from that of 2018. Voters have experienced several changes of government, the formation of new coalitions and party realignments,” she stressed.

At the same time, she said PH-Bersatu cooperation could also affect contests in Malay-majority constituencies if their opponents fail to resolve seat allocations and three- or four-cornered contests occur.

She said Malaysia’s electoral experience showed that vote-splitting among several parties competing for the same group of voters could alter the outcome of a seat even when a party does not secure an absolute majority of the votes.

In GE14, for example, analyses found that many victories occurred in multi-cornered contests, with votes divided among Barisan Nasional (BN), PAS and PH.

“If it becomes a reality, the PH Plus Bersatu formula will draw attention because it essentially seeks to combine two different strengths — PH’s multiracial support base and Bersatu’s ability to engage within the Malay political sphere.

“However, its effectiveness will depend on the extent to which supporters of each party are willing to transfer their votes to candidates from their coalition partners. In coalition politics, party support does not necessarily transfer automatically simply because party leaders reach an agreement,” she said.

Dr Mashitah said another factor was leadership. PH has a clear point of reference, with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim remaining PH Chairman and Prime Minister.

In a national election, clarity over leadership and the government being offered can be among the factors considered by voters, alongside candidates, the economy, cost of living and the administration’s performance.

“That is why the possibility of Bersatu returning to PH is more accurately viewed not as a guarantee of repeating the GE14 victory, but as an attempt to rebuild a coalition formula that once combined a portion of the Malay vote with strong support from the non-Malay community,” she said.

Awani