Middle East Gas Demand to Surge by 3.5% in 2026 Amid Rising Global Energy Needs: IEA
IYADH, July 23 (Voice of Malaysia) Natural gas demand in the Middle East and Africa is forecast to climb significantly, rising by 2 percent in 2025 and accelerating to 3.5 percent in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The growth will be driven primarily by increasing consumption in the industrial and power generation sectors.
In its latest Gas Market Report, the IEA projected that global gas consumption will hit an all-time high in 2026, expanding by approximately 2 percent, up from a more modest 1.3 percent growth expected in 2025.
Asia is set to lead the global expansion, with regional gas demand expected to rise by over 4 percent in 2026—accounting for nearly half of the total global growth. The Middle East is also emerging as a central pillar of this shift.
“The backdrop for global gas markets is shifting as we enter the second half of this year and look toward 2026,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security. “A wave of new LNG supply is expected to ease market fundamentals and stimulate fresh demand, especially in Asia.”
However, Sadamori cautioned that the forecast comes amid persistent uncertainty tied to the global macroeconomic outlook and geopolitical volatility.
The report highlights that industry and power generation will account for the bulk of the gas demand increase through 2026. Gas-to-power usage alone will comprise 30 percent of the overall growth, while residential and commercial use will inch up by 1 percent, assuming stable weather conditions.
While Asia and the Middle East are expanding, Europe’s gas demand is projected to shrink by 2 percent in 2026 due to increased adoption of renewables. In contrast, North America’s demand will inch up by less than 1 percent, sustained mostly by the power sector.
The IEA emphasized that regional stability in the Middle East is vital to global energy security, particularly in light of recent tensions between Israel and Iran.
The report noted that disruptions in Israeli and Iranian gas production earlier this year caused price spikes and supply concerns. For example, Israel shut down its Leviathan and Karish gas fields between June 13 and 15, halting gas exports to Egypt and Jordan and disrupting fertilizer production. Simultaneously, Iranian output dropped due to damage at South Pars Phase 14, reducing supply by 12 million cubic meters per day.
Although output was later restored following a ceasefire, the IEA warned that the Strait of Hormuz remains a vulnerable chokepoint—a flashpoint that could disrupt a third of global LNG and oil flows if tensions resurface.
A recent Rystad Energy analysis supports the IEA’s outlook, noting that the Middle East is on track to surpass Asia and become the world’s second-largest gas-producing region by 2025, behind only North America.
The region’s gas production has surged 15 percent since 2020, led by Iran (25 billion cubic feet/day), followed by Qatar (16 bcfd) and Saudi Arabia (8 bcfd).
Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is also projected to rise sharply—increasing by 5.5 percent (30 billion cubic meters) in 2025 and a further 7 percent (40 bcm) in 2026, driven by new capacity from Qatar and the US.
Qatar is aggressively ramping up LNG output, targeting 110 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2026 and 126 mtpa by 2027, with an ultimate goal of 142 mtpa by 2030. The expansion is anchored in the North Field, which holds nearly 10 percent of global LNG reserves.
Projects contributing to global LNG supply include Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and LNG Canada, all of which are ramping up to meet increasing international demand.
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