Melaka State Election: ILHAM Centre Predicts BN-PN to Win 24 State Seats

BUKIT KATIL: The cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) is expected to dominate the Melaka State Election, with research firm ILHAM Centre projecting that the alliance will lead the contest in 24 of the 28 State Legislative Assembly (DUN) seats.

According to the research findings released today, the vote transfer rate from PN supporters to BN has reached 91 per cent, while 78 per cent of BN supporters are prepared to vote for PN.

ILHAM Centre reported that this consolidation gives BN-PN an advantage in 23 state seats where Malay voters make up at least 50 per cent of the electorate, further strengthened by the grassroots machinery of UMNO and PAS.

The research firm also found that the approval rating for Melaka Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh stood at 86 per cent, while the state government’s administration recorded an 85 per cent approval rating.

According to the study, the Wakil Rakyat Untuk Rakyat (WRUR) programme and Jelajah Ketua Menteri Sayang Rakyat were identified as among the factors strengthening voter support for the state administration.

In contrast, Pakatan Harapan (PH) was seen as having failed to establish a strong campaign narrative to challenge BN-PN, although it continued to retain its core support, particularly among non-Malay voters and in urban areas.

Among young voters below the age of 30, the findings showed that 21 per cent remained undecided when the survey was conducted, with ILHAM Centre expecting that this group could potentially lean towards the BN-PN wave.

In its projections, ILHAM Centre placed PH in a comfortable position in two of its traditional strongholds, Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir, while the contests in Ayer Keroh and Kesidang were categorised as closely fought.

The study also found that cooperation through the Confidence and Supply Agreement (CSA) between the MADANI Government and BERSATU had failed to translate into consolidated voter support, unlike the effectiveness of the BN-PN cooperation.

ILHAM Centre’s field study was conducted from November 1 to 12, involving 805 respondents across all 28 state constituencies, as well as 40 focus group discussion participants and 22 in-depth interview informants, with a margin of error of 3.45 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.

Astro AWANI